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HomeNewsSeptember forecast :part of the raw material market, [Gold September silver October "have to rise!

September forecast :part of the raw material market, [Gold September silver October "have to rise!

2017-09-13

Source from wechat public"Refrigeration business" Sep 7th

1.polymerization MDI

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In August, domestic MDI market average price of RMB 27,641 / ton, the chain rose 11.35%, up 105%. Till August 31, the domestic market to discuss the mainstream in the RMB 30000-30500 / ton barrels of self-delivery or around to send, the price RMB26000-27000 / ton in July 31th compared to the average price rose RMB 3750 / Ton, or 14.15%.
August domestic MDI market supply the overall supply of tension, the domestic manufacturers in the middle of the overall lack of supply, Wanhua Yantai 600,000 tons of equipment August 8 began a period of about 12 days of parking maintenance, and Wanhua Boshi MDI device raw materials Supply encountered force majeure, South Korea BASF / South Korea Kumho Mitsui raw material manufacturers suffered a fire, Japan Dong Cao 200,000 tons MDI device maintenance and other foreign good news to stimulate the first half of the domestic market continued to rise.

Till August 21 the mainstream of the domestic market to discuss prices rose to RMB 29000-30000 / ton, to be the historical height during these years, but high prices inhibit the downstream demand, affecting the healthy development of the industry. Wanhua manufacturers give out of heavy fist, from August 22 on the dealer from the unlimited supply of goods, listing price from the previous RMB 24,000 yuan / ton to RMB 29,000 / ton, traders pulled up enthusiasm, shipping positive offer loose, Downstream procurement initiative is low, the mainstream market to discuss the focus quickly down. But with the major domestic manufacturers in September listed a substantial increase in listing price, September supply tight news release, due to lack of spot, traders fried up again warmed up the market once again rose sharply. Till the end of September,the domestic market to discuss the mainstream break RMB 30,000 / ton mark, while the downstream factory more on demand small single purchase.

2.refrigerant


R22: During August domestic R22 refrigerant prices continue to show a significant decline, domestic R22 production enterprises offer an average monthly price of RMB 14,100/ ton, up 48.20%, the chain fell 7.37%.

R134a: During August domestic R134a prices continue to decline, as of the end of the month bulk shipping prices have dropped to a large single to RMB 20,000/ ton, but manufacturers offer remains high. Domestic R134a manufacturers listed the average monthly price of RMB 22,687 / ton, up 9.60% year on year, the chain fell 15.19%.


R32:During August domestic R32 prices show down at the beginning and then the steady situation, the production enterprises shipping prices gradually bottomed out, in the low-profit environment, the price will continue to reduce the lack of willingness. Domestic R32 production enterprises are quoted at RMB 15298/ ton, up 35.57% year on year, the chain fell 12.74%.

3. non-ferrous metals

1.Aluminum

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September forecast: the metal market began to enter the "gold September silver October" demand season, and to the strong implementation of the production capacity policy to support aluminum prices, aluminum profitability is expected to continue to run strong aluminum prices.

2.Copper

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September forecast: Boosted by strong overseas demand and new business volume, the latest announcement in August China's official manufacturing industry PMI and the official manufacturing PMI both better than expected and the former value, as the world's top metal consumer, made in China Industry rebound is expected to promote copper demand continues to grow at the same time the two cities continued to decline in copper stocks "off-season is not light" effect is increasingly obvious, tight supply situation is temporarily difficult to improve, copper market late bearish mentality is still strong, copper is expected to continue the overall pattern of strong increase.

3.Zinc

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September forecast: Domestic and foreign zinc raw materials continue to be in a state of tension, the current supply of zinc ore has been conductive to China's smelting enterprises. The market is expected by the end of 2017, the supply of zinc will be reduced by 1.2 million tons, while some of China's small mines are also due to environmental problems and forced to close. Zinc production is less zinc prices to provide strong support, superimposed "gold nine silver ten" is coming, zinc supply and demand gap is still expected zinc prices are still up space.

4. styrene

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August stock is in a tension, Jiangsu market soared. August Jiangsu styrene spot market operating range in the RMB 9350-11100 / ton, the average price this month is RMB 9775 / ton, the chain rose 1.55%. In the late September, commodities rose strongly, multiple factors superimposed, Jiangsu market is in a sharply increase. August 25 trading day, the new day of temporary parking news is a direct ignition of the round of the rally of the fuse. Later on the end of the month before and after the short squeeze market, extreme weather affect the scrambling, East China main port inventory and then good profit stimulus, rally prices intensified, August 31, spot transactions rushed to 11100 yuan / ton price,is the highestsince February 20th,2017.

September forecast: from the current mastery of data, the entire September US cargo to the limited volume of goods, alkali industry production time is expected to push, Shell down agent will lead to about 10,000 tons of production losses, is expected to supply tight situation continued. Demand, with the end of the summer heat, the main downstream industry demand gradually picked up. Since mid-September, with the closing of the city Games, the end of the meeting, the early stoppage or start, transport limited enterprises will return to normal production and sales, is expected to major downstream industry will usher in the traditional demand season. On the whole, the fundamentals are running warmer, the domestic market is expected to be optimistic in September.

5.steel

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Cold rolling

September forecast: August cold-rolled market weak mainly in the range of RMB 30-100. At present, several major varieties of inventory recovery and demand recovery is slow, steel market is still a lot of kinetic energy is still inadequate. The market will continue to wait and see, but into the September, is expected to survive, wait and see demand release out of the doldrums. Comprehensive consideration, in the futures and raw materials stabilized rebound, the decline gradually slow, and sales growth is not obvious, can be described as missing people, for stability is not stable. But on Friday, a blast furnace steel blast led to a sudden change in the market atmosphere, but still need to guard against irrational fluctuations, it is expected to cold-rolled market price shocks adjustment.

Coating
September forecast: August national coating market stability within a narrow range finishing. From the supply and demand level, has now entered the traditional steel market season, so the demand level, there will be a certain degree of release, and the other learned that the current overall pressure on the overall coating, so the supply and demand is currently in a weak balance State; the other futures market recent ups and downs frequently, business mentality is still cautious, but because the current environment is still warmer, the market cautious bullish majority. The final cost is still high, the formation of strong support for the price. On the whole, it is expected that the national market penetration of the market is likely to be higher, with an increase of RMB 50-100 / ton.

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